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Daripada BERPOLEMIK TERUS-MENERUS tentang Potensi Yang Hilang Rp. 7.200 Trilyun TANPA FAKTA DAN ANALISIS, maka VG TELAH melakukan analisis ilmiah menggunakan Productivity Gap Analysis seperti bagan terlampir, dan menghasilkan potensial GDP Indonesia tahun 2013 yang HILANG akibat Produktivitas Sektoral yang Rendah sebesar: Rp. 8.404,6 Trilyun. Jika Abraham Samad (Ketua KPK) masih BELUM BISA membuktikan ucapannya secara ilmiah, maka VG telah membuktikan berdasarkan alasan ilmiah.
Apa itu Productivity Gap Analysis, silakan lihat penjelasan dalam website berikut:
http://www.tutor2u.net/blog/index.php/economics/comments/qa-what-is-the-productivity-gap
Berdasarkan Productivity Gap Analysis, maka BUKAN HAL MUSTAHIL apabila PRODUKTIVITAS dapat ditingkatkan 50% saja, maka akan ada peningkatan GDP Nasional Rp. 4000 Trilyun, dan melalui kualitas dan produktivitas yang meningkat, maka pertumbuhan ekonomi Indonesia bisa mencapai 10% per tahun, sehingga pendapatan perkapita Indonesia BISA meningkat 2 kali lipat (200%) SESUAI Pernyataan Capres Prabowo Subianto.
Dalam debat capres-cawapres pada hari minggu, 15 Juni 2014, Prabowo Subianto mengutip pernyataan Abraham Samad (Ketua Komite Pemberatasan Korupsi) bahwa ada sinyalemen “kebocoran” pendapatan nasional sebesar Rp. 7.200 Trilyun. Kemudian beliau menyatakan bahwa analisis Tim Ahli saya adalah tingkat kebocoran Rp. 1.160 Trilyun, TAPI saya ambil saja angka Rp. 1000 Trilyun.
Setelah acara debat itu, seperti “bola liar” angka-angka ini ditanggapi publik sehingga menjadi ramai. Kemudian pihak KPK (Komite Pemberantasan Korupsi) menyatakan bahwa angka Rp. 7.200 Trilyun yang diucapkan oleh Abraham Samad (Ketua KPK) itu belum berdasarkan kajian ilmiah. Wah “jangan-jangan” sinyalemen Abraham Samad juga ASBUN (Asal Bunyi).
Setelah bantahan dari KPK, maka fokus pembicaraan publik pada angka Rp. 1.000 Trilyun. Saya menunggu Tim Ahli Prabowo untuk menjelaskan kepada publik, tapi tanggapan yang muncul malahan seperti orang berpolemik TANPA data (fakta) dan analisis. Karena penasaran, maka saya mencoba melacak bagaimana Tim Ahli Prabowo menghitung kebocoran Rp. 1.160 Trilyun itu? Saya menemukan melalui video Youtube, ternyata angka Rp. 1.160 Trilyun diperoleh sebagai berikut:
Kebocoran & Kehilangan Kekayaan Negara 2013 Versi Tim Ahli Prabowo:
- Kehilangan potensi penerimaan pajak: rp. 360 trilyun
- Kebocoran anggaran negara: rp. 500 trilyun
- Anggaran negara untuk subsidi energi: rp. 300 trilyun
- Total kebocoran & kehilangan kekayaan negara = rp. 1.160 trilyun
Wah ternyata berita heboh hanya datang dari analisis yang sangat sederhana dan masih dapat diperdebatkan (debatable).
Tidak sesederhana itu untuk menganalisis suatu masalah negara hanya menggunakan data yang masih dapat diperdebatkan apalagi tanpa pertanggungjawaban ilmiah! Akibatnya tahu sendiri: debat kusir lagi dan mudah dibantah oleh orang banyak! Apakah negara ini mau dikelola tanpa fakta (data) & analisis? Jika demikian bagaimana pertanggungjawaban terhadap kebijakan-kebijakan publik? Pantas negara indonesia tidak pernah maju!
Orang Cerdas dan Tegas seperti Pak Prabowo HARUS dibantu dengan ANALISIS yang Cerdas dan TAJAM agar dia seperti “Buldozer” BISA BABAT “HUTAN BELANTARA” INDONESIA ini. Bayangkan analisis yang sederhana saja dia telah berani ungkapkan secara berapi-api, tetapi sayang Tim Ahli/Penasehatnya SANGAT LEMAH. Jika Pak Prabowo diberikan informasi strategik tentang akar permasalahan bangsa Indonesia, ditambah dukungan analisis yang Cerdas dan Tajam berdasarkan FAKTA (DATA), maka saya meyakini PASTI Indonesia akan SUCCESS.
Salam SUCCESS Untuk Tim Ahli Prabowo!
Vincent Gaspersz, Profesor bidang teknik sistem dan manajemen industri. Menulis disertasi doktor di ITB tentang Keterkaitan Struktur Industri dengan Produktivitas di Indonesia, 1991 (Studi Pembangunan Ekonomi dan Sistem Industri Periode 1967-1988).
Indonesia’s 2013 Potential GDP Loss Based on Productivity Gap Analysis is: Rp 8,404.6 Trillions!!
Instead of continually polemizing about the Potential Loss of Rp 7,200 Trillions WITHOUT FACTS and ANALYSIS, then VG HAS done scientific analysis using Productivity Gap Analysis as seen attached, and found that Indonesia’s 2013 Potential GDP that was LOST due to Low Sectoral Productivity is: Rp 8,404.6 Trillions. If Abraham Samad (Chairman of KPK) still HASN’T BEEN ABLE to scientifically prove his claim, then VG has proved it with scientific reasoning.
What is Productivity Gap Analysis, please read the explanations in the following website:
http://www.tutor2u.net/blog/index.php/economics/comments/qa-what-is-the-productivity-gap
Based on Productivity Gap Analysis, then IT IS NOT IMPOSSIBLE that if PRODUCTIVITY can be increased by just 50%, there would be increase of Rp 4,000 Trillions in National GDP, and through increasing quality and productivity, then Indonesia’s economic growth can reach 10% per year, so that Indonesia’s per capita income COULD increase twice as much (200%) CONSISTENT with Presidential Candidate Prabowo Subianto’s Statement.
In Presidential-Vice-Presidential debate on Sunday, June 15th, 2014, Prabowo Subianto quoted Abraham Samad’s statement (Chairman of Komite Pemberatasan Korupsi/Corruption Eradication Commission) that there was a sign of national income “leakage” of Rp 7,200 Trillions. Then, he further stated that his Expert Team’s analysis on the level of leakage was Rp 1,160 Trillions; BUT I would just round off the amount to Rp 1,000 Trillions.
Following that debate, like a “wildfire” these numbers were addressed by the public and made an uproar. Subsequently, KPK (Komite Pemberantasan Korupsi/Corruption Eradication Commission) stated that the number of Rp 7,200 Trillions said by Abraham Samad (KPK Chairman) had not been based on scientific study. Wow, “perhaps” Abraham Samad’s statement is also ASBUN (Asal Bunyi/As long as it sounds).
After KPK’s objection, then the public’s focus of talks turned into the number Rp 1,000 Trillions. I was waiting Prabowo’s Expert Team to explain to the public, but the emerging response was like someone who polemicized WITHOUT data (fact) and analysis. Since I was curious, I then tried to track how Prabowo’s Expert Team calculated that leakage of Rp 1,160 Trillions. I found through a Youtube video, and turns out, the number of Rp 1,160 Trillions was obtained as follows:
The Leakage and Losses of National Wealth in 2013 Prabowo’s Expert Team’s Version:
- Potential Loss from tax revenues: Rp 360 trilions
- State budget’s leakage: Rp 500 trillions
- State budget for energy subsidies: Rp 300 trillions
- Total leakage and losses of national wealth = Rp 1,160 trillions
Wow, it turns out such breaking news only came from very simple analysis that was debatable too.
It is not that simple to analyze of a national problem, just by using debatable data without scientific accountability. The result: another sophistic debate that can easily be objected by many people! Does this nation want to be managed without fact (data) and analysis? If it does, how is the accountability of public policies? It is fitting that Indonesia can never move forward!
An intelligent and firm man like Mr. Prabowo MUST BE helped with intelligent and SHARP ANALYSIS so he can be like a “Buldozer” that CAN FLATTEN this INDONESIAN “JUNGLE”. Imagine, with only such simple analysis, he boldly and fierily expressed the data; it is unfortunate that his Expert/Advisory team was VERY WEAK. If Mr. Prabowo was to be given strategic information about the roots of Indonesia’s problem, plus Intelligent and Sharp analytical support that was based on FACT (DATA), then I’d believe DEFINITELY Indonesia will be SUCCESSFUL.
Best Regards for SUCCESS to Prabowo’s Team of Experts!
Vincent Gaspersz, Professor of systems engineering and industrial management. He wrote doctoral dissertation on Linkage Between Industrial Structure and Productivity in Indonesia, 1991 (Study of Economic Development and Industrial Systems, Period 1967-1988).
